But the fact that she's sitting on her own with no bodyguards isn't, so your belief goes down. As you turn to look at the woman, you'll automatically use each piece of evidence in front of you to update your belief in your friend's hypothesis Perhaps the platinum-blonde hair is consistent with what you would expect from Gaga, so your belief goes up. If pushed, it's a belief that you could put a number on. You'll take into account all of your prior knowledge: perhaps the quality of the establishment, the distance you are from Gaga's home in Malibu, your friend's eyesight. Before having a look for yourself, you'll no doubt have some sense of how much you believe your friends theory. At some point during the meal, your companion leans over and whispers that they've spotted Lady Gaga eating at the table opposite. “Imagine you're sitting having dinner in a restaurant.
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